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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study

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dc.contributor.author Zhao, Q.
dc.contributor.author Guo, Y.
dc.contributor.author Ye, T.
dc.contributor.author Gasparrini, A.
dc.contributor.author Tong, S.
dc.contributor.author Overcenco, A.
dc.contributor.author Urban, A.
dc.contributor.author Schneider, A.
dc.contributor.author Entezari, A.
dc.contributor.author Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.
dc.contributor.author Zanobetti, A.
dc.contributor.author Analitis, A.
dc.contributor.author Zeka, A.
dc.contributor.author Tobias, A.
dc.contributor.author Nunes, B.
dc.contributor.author Alahmad, B.
dc.contributor.author Armstrong, B.
dc.contributor.author Forsberg, B.
dc.contributor.author Pan, S.-C.
dc.contributor.author Íñiguez, C.
dc.contributor.author Ameling, C.
dc.contributor.author De la Cruz Valencia, C.
dc.contributor.author Åström, C.
dc.contributor.author Houthuijs, D.
dc.contributor.author Dung, D.V.
dc.contributor.author Royé, D.
dc.contributor.author Indermitte, E.
dc.contributor.author Lavigne, E.
dc.contributor.author Mayvaneh, F.
dc.contributor.author Acquaotta, F.
dc.contributor.author de'Donato, F.
dc.contributor.author Di Ruscio, F.
dc.contributor.author Sera, F.
dc.contributor.author Carrasco Escobar, Gabriel
dc.contributor.author Kan, H.
dc.contributor.author Orru, H.
dc.contributor.author Kim, H.
dc.contributor.author Holobaca, I.-H.
dc.contributor.author Kyselý, J.
dc.contributor.author Madureira, J.
dc.contributor.author Schwartz, J.
dc.contributor.author Jaakkola, J.J.K.
dc.contributor.author Katsouyanni, K.
dc.contributor.author Hurtado Diaz, M.
dc.contributor.author Ragettli, M.S.
dc.contributor.author Hashizume, M.
dc.contributor.author Pascal, M.
dc.contributor.author de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, M.
dc.contributor.author Valdés Ortega, N.
dc.contributor.author Ryti, N.
dc.contributor.author Scovronick, N.
dc.contributor.author Michelozzi, P.
dc.contributor.author Matus Correa, P.
dc.contributor.author Goodman, P.
dc.contributor.author Nascimento Saldiva, P.H.
dc.contributor.author Abrutzky, R.
dc.contributor.author Osorio, S.
dc.contributor.author Rao, S.
dc.contributor.author Fratianni, S.
dc.contributor.author Dang, T.N.
dc.contributor.author Colistro, V.
dc.contributor.author Huber, V.
dc.contributor.author Lee, W.
dc.contributor.author Seposo, X.
dc.contributor.author Honda, Y.
dc.contributor.author Guo, Y.L.
dc.contributor.author Bell, M.L.
dc.contributor.author Li, S.
dc.date.accessioned 2021-12-12T20:24:59Z
dc.date.available 2021-12-12T20:24:59Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/10307
dc.description.abstract Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature–mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967–5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60–87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000–03 to 2016–19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by −0·51 percentage points (95% eCI −0·61 to −0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13–0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Elsevier
dc.relation.ispartofseries Lancet. Planetary Health
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject adult en_US
dc.subject Africa south of the Sahara en_US
dc.subject article en_US
dc.subject Asia en_US
dc.subject climate change en_US
dc.subject cold stress en_US
dc.subject controlled study en_US
dc.subject Eastern Europe en_US
dc.subject environmental temperature en_US
dc.subject female en_US
dc.subject heat en_US
dc.subject human en_US
dc.subject major clinical study en_US
dc.subject male en_US
dc.subject medical research en_US
dc.subject mortality rate en_US
dc.subject public health en_US
dc.subject resident en_US
dc.subject time series analysis en_US
dc.subject weather en_US
dc.title Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-4
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.05
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.02
dc.relation.issn 2542-5196


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