Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

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dc.contributor.author Wu, Y.
dc.contributor.author Li, S.
dc.contributor.author Zhao, Q.
dc.contributor.author Wen, B.
dc.contributor.author Gasparrini, A.
dc.contributor.author Tong, S.
dc.contributor.author Overcenco, A.
dc.contributor.author Urban, A.
dc.contributor.author Schneider, A.
dc.contributor.author Entezari, A.
dc.contributor.author Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.
dc.contributor.author Zanobetti, A.
dc.contributor.author Analitis, A.
dc.contributor.author Zeka, A.
dc.contributor.author Tobias, A.
dc.contributor.author Nunes, B.
dc.contributor.author Alahmad, B.
dc.contributor.author Armstrong, B.
dc.contributor.author Forsberg, B.
dc.contributor.author Pan, S.-C.
dc.contributor.author Íñiguez, C.
dc.contributor.author Ameling, C.
dc.contributor.author De la Cruz Valencia, C.
dc.contributor.author Åström, C.
dc.contributor.author Houthuijs, D.
dc.contributor.author Van Dung, D.
dc.contributor.author Royé, D.
dc.contributor.author Indermitte, E.
dc.contributor.author Lavigne, E.
dc.contributor.author Mayvaneh, F.
dc.contributor.author Acquaotta, F.
dc.contributor.author de'Donato, F.
dc.contributor.author Rao, S.
dc.contributor.author Sera, F.
dc.contributor.author Carrasco Escobar, Gabriel
dc.contributor.author Kan, H.
dc.contributor.author Orru, H.
dc.contributor.author Kim, H.
dc.contributor.author Holobaca, I.-H.
dc.contributor.author Kyselý, J.
dc.contributor.author Madureira, J.
dc.contributor.author Schwartz, J.
dc.contributor.author Jaakkola, J.J.K.
dc.contributor.author Katsouyanni, K.
dc.contributor.author Hurtado Diaz, M.
dc.contributor.author Ragettli, M.S.
dc.contributor.author Hashizume, M.
dc.contributor.author Pascal, M.
dc.contributor.author de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, M.
dc.contributor.author Ortega, N.V.
dc.contributor.author Ryti, N.
dc.contributor.author Scovronick, N.
dc.contributor.author Michelozzi, P.
dc.contributor.author Correa, P.M.
dc.contributor.author Goodman, P.
dc.contributor.author Nascimento Saldiva, P.H.
dc.contributor.author Abrutzky, R.
dc.contributor.author Osorio, S.
dc.contributor.author Dang, T.N.
dc.contributor.author Colistro, V.
dc.contributor.author Huber, V.
dc.contributor.author Lee, W.
dc.contributor.author Seposo, X.
dc.contributor.author Honda, Y.
dc.contributor.author Guo, Y.L.
dc.contributor.author Bell, M.L.
dc.contributor.author Guo, Y.
dc.date.accessioned 2022-06-25T20:36:40Z
dc.date.available 2022-06-25T20:36:40Z
dc.date.issued 2022
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/11839
dc.description.abstract Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19. Methods: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. Findings: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901–2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2–4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7–5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3–10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2–5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9–4·6). Interpretation: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Elsevier
dc.relation.ispartofseries Lancet. Planetary Health
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject controlled study en_US
dc.subject human en_US
dc.subject major clinical study en_US
dc.subject mortality en_US
dc.subject awareness en_US
dc.subject medical research en_US
dc.subject article en_US
dc.subject time series analysis en_US
dc.subject Asia en_US
dc.subject public health en_US
dc.subject Europe en_US
dc.subject Africa en_US
dc.subject Australia and New Zealand en_US
dc.subject regression model en_US
dc.subject excess mortality en_US
dc.title Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00073-0
dc.relation.issn 2542-5196


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