Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia

Effects of hydrometeorological and other factors on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America: a spatiotemporally disaggregated time series analysis.

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dc.contributor.author Colston, Josh M
dc.contributor.author Hinson, Patrick
dc.contributor.author Nguyen, Nhat-Lan H
dc.contributor.author Chen, Yen Ting
dc.contributor.author Badr, Hamada S
dc.contributor.author Kerr, Gaige H
dc.contributor.author Gardner, Lauren M
dc.contributor.author Martin, David N
dc.contributor.author Quispe, Antonio M
dc.contributor.author Schiaffino Salazar, Francesca
dc.contributor.author Kosek, Margaret N
dc.contributor.author Zaitchik, Benjamin F
dc.coverage.spatial Perú
dc.coverage.spatial Colombia
dc.coverage.spatial Ecuador
dc.date.accessioned 2023-02-20T13:28:10Z
dc.date.available 2023-02-20T13:28:10Z
dc.date.issued 2023
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/13140
dc.description.abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused societal disruption globally, and South America has been hit harder than other lower-income regions. This study modeled the effects of six weather variables on district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers (Rt ) in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America (Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru), adjusting for environmental, policy, healthcare infrastructural and other factors.Methods: Daily time-series data on SARS-CoV-2 infections were sourced from the health authorities of the three countries at the smallest available administrative level. Rt values were calculated and merged by date and unit ID with variables from a unified COVID-19 dataset and other publicly available sources for May-December, 2020. Generalized additive models were fitted.Findings: Relative humidity and solar radiation were inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 Rt . Days with radiation above 1000kJ/m2 saw a 1.3% reduction in Rt , and those with humidity above 50% recorded a 0.9% reduction in Rt . Transmission was highest in densely populated districts, and lowest in districts with poor healthcare access and on days with lowest population mobility. Wind speed, temperature, region, aggregate government policy response, and population age structure had little impact. The fully adjusted model explained 4.3% of Rt variance.Interpretation: Dry atmospheric conditions of low humidity increase district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers, while higher levels of solar radiation decrease district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers - effects that are comparable in magnitude to population factors like lockdown compliance. Weather monitoring could be incorporated into disease surveillance and early warning systems in conjunction with more established risk indicators and surveillance measures. en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Elsevier
dc.relation.ispartofseries IJID regions
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject coronavirus en_US
dc.subject COVID-19 en_US
dc.subject SARS-CoV-2 en_US
dc.subject climate en_US
dc.subject hydrometeorology en_US
dc.subject pandemic disease en_US
dc.subject Latin America en_US
dc.subject Peru en_US
dc.subject Ecuador en_US
dc.subject Colombia en_US
dc.subject.mesh Coronavirus
dc.subject.mesh COVID-19
dc.subject.mesh SARS-CoV-2
dc.subject.mesh Climate
dc.subject.mesh Hydrometeorology
dc.subject.mesh Latin America
dc.subject.mesh Peru
dc.subject.mesh Ecuador
dc.subject.mesh Colombia
dc.title Effects of hydrometeorological and other factors on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America: a spatiotemporally disaggregated time series analysis. en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijregi.2022.11.007
dc.relation.issn 2772-7076


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