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Development and internal validation of a multifactorial risk prediction model for gallbladder cancer in a high-incidence country

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dc.contributor.author Boekstegers, Felix
dc.contributor.author Scherer, Dominique
dc.contributor.author Barahona Ponce, Carol
dc.contributor.author Marcelain, Katherine
dc.contributor.author Gárate-Calderón, Valentina
dc.contributor.author Waldenberger, Melanie
dc.contributor.author Morales, Erik
dc.contributor.author Rojas, Armando
dc.contributor.author Munoz, César
dc.contributor.author Retamales, Javier
dc.contributor.author de Toro, Gonzalo
dc.contributor.author Barajas, Olga
dc.contributor.author Rivera, María Teresa
dc.contributor.author Cortés, Analía
dc.contributor.author Loader, Denisse
dc.contributor.author Saavedra, Javiera
dc.contributor.author Gutiérrez, Lorena
dc.contributor.author Ortega, Alejandro
dc.contributor.author Bertrán, Maria Enriqueta
dc.contributor.author Bartolotti, Leonardo
dc.contributor.author Gabler, Fernando
dc.contributor.author Campos, Mónica
dc.contributor.author Alvarado, Juan
dc.contributor.author Moisán, Fabricio
dc.contributor.author Spencer, Loreto
dc.contributor.author Nervi, Bruno
dc.contributor.author Carvajal-Hausdorf, Daniel
dc.contributor.author Losada, Héctor
dc.contributor.author Almau, Mauricio
dc.contributor.author Fernández, Plinio
dc.contributor.author Olloquequi, Jordi
dc.contributor.author Fuentes-Guajardo, Macarena
dc.contributor.author Gonzalez-Jose, Rolando
dc.contributor.author Bortolini, Maria Cátira
dc.contributor.author Acuña-Alonzo, Victor
dc.contributor.author Gallo, Carla
dc.contributor.author Linares, Andres Ruiz
dc.contributor.author Rothhammer, Francisco
dc.contributor.author Lorenzo Bermejo, Justo
dc.coverage.spatial Chile
dc.date.accessioned 2023-09-06T20:45:10Z
dc.date.available 2023-09-06T20:45:10Z
dc.date.issued 2023
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/14096
dc.description.abstract Since 2006, Chile has been implementing a gallbladder cancer (GBC) prevention program based on prophylactic cholecystectomy for gallstone patients aged 35 to 49 years. The effectiveness of this prevention program has not yet been comprehensively evaluated. We conducted a retrospective study of 473 Chilean GBC patients and 2137 population-based controls to develop and internally validate three GBC risk prediction models. The Baseline Model accounted for gallstones while adjusting for sex and birth year. Enhanced Model I also included the non-genetic risk factors: body mass index, educational level, Mapuche surnames, number of children and family history of GBC. Enhanced Model II further included Mapuche ancestry and the genotype for rs17209837. Multiple Cox regression was applied to assess the predictive performance, quantified by the area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PRC) and the number of cholecystectomies needed (NCN) to prevent one case of GBC at age 70 years. The AUC-PRC for the Baseline Model (0.44%, 95%CI 0.42-0.46) increased by 0.22 (95%CI 0.15-0.29) when non-genetic factors were included, and by 0.25 (95%CI 0.20-0.30) when incorporating non-genetic and genetic factors. The overall NCN for Chileans with gallstones (115, 95%CI 104-131) decreased to 92 (95%CI 60-128) for Chileans with a higher risk than the median according to Enhanced Model I, and to 80 (95%CI 59-110) according to Enhanced Model II. In conclusion, age, sex and gallstones are strong risk factors for GBC, but consideration of other non-genetic factors and individual genotype data improves risk prediction and may optimize allocation of financial resources and surgical capacity. en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Wiley
dc.relation.ispartofseries International Journal of Cancer
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject Cholecystectomy en_US
dc.subject Gallbladder cancer en_US
dc.subject Gallstones en_US
dc.subject Native American ancestry en_US
dc.subject Non-genetic and genetic risk factors en_US
dc.subject Risk prediction en_US
dc.subject.mesh Colecistectomía
dc.subject.mesh Neoplasias de la Vesícula Biliar
dc.subject.mesh Cálculos Biliares
dc.subject.mesh Indio Americano o Nativo de Alaska
dc.subject.mesh Factores de Riesgo
dc.title Development and internal validation of a multifactorial risk prediction model for gallbladder cancer in a high-incidence country en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.34607
dc.relation.issn 1097-0215

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