Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia

Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir

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dc.contributor.author Ribeiro, Rita
dc.contributor.author Matthiopoulos, Jason
dc.contributor.author Lindgren, Finn
dc.contributor.author Tello, Carlos
dc.contributor.author Zariquiey, Carlos M.
dc.contributor.author Valderrama Bazán, William David
dc.contributor.author Rocke, Tonie E.
dc.contributor.author Streicker, Daniel G.
dc.coverage.spatial Ayacucho, Perú
dc.coverage.spatial Apurimac, Perú
dc.coverage.spatial Cusco, Perú
dc.date.accessioned 2023-12-07T22:33:24Z
dc.date.available 2023-12-07T22:33:24Z
dc.date.issued 2023
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/14711
dc.description.abstract Predicting the spatial occurrence of wildlife is a major challenge for ecology and management. In Latin America, limited knowledge of the number and locations of vampire bat roosts precludes informed allocation of measures intended to prevent rabies spillover to humans and livestock. We inferred the spatial distribution of vampire bat roosts while accounting for observation effort and environmental effects by fitting a log Gaussian Cox process model to the locations of 563 roosts in three regions of Peru. Our model explained 45% of the variance in the observed roost distribution and identified environmental drivers of roost establishment. When correcting for uneven observation effort, our model estimated a total of 2340 roosts, indicating that undetected roosts (76%) exceed known roosts (24%) by threefold. Predicted hotspots of undetected roosts in rabies-free areas revealed high-risk areas for future viral incursions. Using the predicted roost distribution to inform a spatial model of rabies spillover to livestock identified areas with disproportionate underreporting and indicated a higher rabies burden than previously recognized. We provide a transferrable approach to infer the distribution of a mostly unobserved bat reservoir that can inform strategies to prevent the re-emergence of an important zoonosis. en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Royal Society Publishing
dc.relation.ispartofseries Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject Detection probability en_US
dc.subject Gaussian random field en_US
dc.subject Partially observed species en_US
dc.subject Species distribution models en_US
dc.subject Vampire bat rabies en_US
dc.subject.mesh Probabilidad
dc.subject.mesh Distribución Normal
dc.subject.mesh Especificidad de la Especie
dc.subject.mesh Virus de la Rabia
dc.title Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.1739
dc.relation.issn 1471-2954


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