Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

Schipf, S.; Zhu, D.; Dinc, G.H.; Avdicová, M.; Wang, Y.X.; Tynelius, P.; van Rossem, L.; Murphy, N.; Noorbala, A.A.; Kersting, M.; Solfrizzi, V.; He, J.; Santos, R.; Saum, K.-U.; Janszky, I.; Ghasemian, A.; Hwalla, N.; Brewster, L.M.; Htike, M.M.T.; Gill, T.K.; Marrugat, J.; Romaguera, D.; Cooper, R.; Pilav, A.; Matsha, T.E.; Nauck, M.; Afsana, K.; Onat, A.; Kulaga, Z.; Tarqui-Mamani, C.B.; Rampal, S.; Wilks, R.J.; Mursu, J.; Park, S.-W.; Petersmann, A.; Osmond, C.; Araújo, J.; Niiranen, T.J.; Grujic, V.; Htay, T.T.; Sung, Y.-T.; Bjertness, M.B.; Viikari-Juntura, E.; Gates, L.; Gupta, P.C.; Carrillo Larco, Rodrigo Martín; Ramachandran, A.; Erem, C.; Sánchez-Abanto, J.; Baur, L.A.; Minderico, C.S.; Schargrodsky, H.; Wade, A.N.; Sein, A.A.; Chen, C.-J.; Bentham, J.; Malyutina, S.; Bugge, A.; Kavousi, M.; Sardinha, L.B.; Hormiga, C.M.; Jurak, G.; Lehtimäki, T.; Rubinstein, A.; Shin, D.W.; Tanser, F.; Momenan, A.; Mohammadifard, N.; Yiallouros, P.K.; Bettiol, H.; Lam, T.H.; Prashant, M.; Posso, A.J.M.D.; 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dc.date.accessioned	2018-11-30T23:41:32Z
dc.date.available	2018-11-30T23:41:32Z
dc.date.issued	2018
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/4227
dc.description.abstract	Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.	en_US
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.publisher	Oxford University Press
dc.relation.ispartofseries	International Journal of Epidemiology
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject	Non-communicable disease	en_US
dc.subject	public health	en_US
dc.subject	hypertension	en_US
dc.subject	Hypertension	en_US
dc.subject	human	en_US
dc.subject	Pacific Ocean	en_US
dc.subject	Article	en_US
dc.subject	priority journal	en_US
dc.subject	adult	en_US
dc.subject	aged	en_US
dc.subject	female	en_US
dc.subject	high income country	en_US
dc.subject	low income country	en_US
dc.subject	major clinical study	en_US
dc.subject	male	en_US
dc.subject	middle income country	en_US
dc.subject	prevalence	en_US
dc.subject	trend study	en_US
dc.subject	health survey	en_US
dc.subject	blood	en_US
dc.subject	global health	en_US
dc.subject	Blood pressure	en_US
dc.subject	population research	en_US
dc.subject	blood pressure measurement	en_US
dc.subject	diastolic blood pressure	en_US
dc.subject	systolic blood pressure	en_US
dc.subject	blood pressure regulation	en_US
dc.subject	Central Asia	en_US
dc.subject	disease prevalence	en_US
dc.subject	Global health	en_US
dc.subject	mean arterial pressure	en_US
dc.subject	measurement method	en_US
dc.subject	Middle East	en_US
dc.subject	North Africa	en_US
dc.subject	Pacific Rim	en_US
dc.subject	population health	en_US
dc.subject	Population health	en_US
dc.subject	South Asia	en_US
dc.subject	survey design	en_US
dc.subject	trend analysis	en_US
dc.subject	non-communicable disease	en_US
dc.title	Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants	en_US
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyy016
dc.subject.ocde	https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.09
dc.relation.issn	1464-3685

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Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

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Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

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