Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia

The development of an online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis among a high-risk cohort of men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru

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dc.contributor.author Allan-Blitz, Lao-Tzu
dc.contributor.author Konda, Kelika A.
dc.contributor.author Vargas Rivera, Silver Keith
dc.contributor.author Wang, Xiaoyan
dc.contributor.author Segura, Eddy R.
dc.contributor.author Fazio, Boris M.
dc.contributor.author Calvo, Gino M.
dc.contributor.author Caceres Palacios, Carlos Fernando
dc.contributor.author Klausner, Jeffrey D.
dc.date.accessioned 2018-12-01T00:04:16Z
dc.date.available 2018-12-01T00:04:16Z
dc.date.issued 2018
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/4260
dc.description.abstract Background: Syphilis incidence worldwide has rebounded since 2000, particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM). A predictive model for syphilis infection may inform prevention counselling and use of chemoprophylaxis. Methods: Data from a longitudinal cohort study of MSM and transgender women meeting high-risk criteria for syphilis who were followed quarterly for 2 years were analysed. Incidence was defined as a four-fold increase in rapid plasma reagin (RPR) titres or new RPR reactivity if two prior titres were non-reactive. Generalised estimating equations were used to calculate rate ratios (RR) and develop a predictive model for 70% of the dataset, which was then validated in the remaining 30%. An online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis was also developed. Results: Among 361 participants, 22.0% were transgender women and 34.6% were HIV-infected at baseline. Syphilis incidence was 19.9 cases per 100-person years (95% confidence interval (CI) 16.3-24.3). HIV infection (RR 2.22; 95% CI 1.54-3.21) and history of syphilis infection (RR 2.23; 95% 1.62-3.64) were significantly associated with incident infection. The final predictive model for syphilis incidence in the next 3 months included HIV infection, history of syphilis, number of male sex partners and sex role for anal sex in the past 3 months, and had an area under the curve of 69%. The online syphilis risk calculator based on those results is available at: www. syphrisk. net. Conclusions: Using data from a longitudinal cohort study among a population at high risk for syphilis infection in Peru, we developed a predictive model and online risk calculator for future syphilis infection. The predictive model for future syphilis developed in this study has a moderate predictive accuracy and may serve as the foundation for future studies. en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher CSIRO Publishing
dc.relation.ispartofseries Sexual Health
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject adult en_US
dc.subject age en_US
dc.subject alcohol consumption en_US
dc.subject anal intercourse en_US
dc.subject Article en_US
dc.subject chemoprophylaxis en_US
dc.subject cohort analysis en_US
dc.subject high risk behavior en_US
dc.subject high risk population en_US
dc.subject human en_US
dc.subject human experiment en_US
dc.subject Human immunodeficiency virus infection en_US
dc.subject immunoreactivity en_US
dc.subject incidence en_US
dc.subject longitudinal study en_US
dc.subject male en_US
dc.subject male to female transgender en_US
dc.subject measurement accuracy en_US
dc.subject men who have sex with men en_US
dc.subject online system en_US
dc.subject Peru en_US
dc.subject prediction en_US
dc.subject program development en_US
dc.subject reaginic antibody en_US
dc.subject retention time en_US
dc.subject risk assessment en_US
dc.subject sex role en_US
dc.subject syphilis en_US
dc.subject validation process en_US
dc.title The development of an online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis among a high-risk cohort of men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1071/SH17118
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.08
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.05
dc.relation.issn 1449-8987


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