Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia

Estimation of the Demand for Hospital Care After a Possible High-Magnitude Earthquake in the City of Lima, Peru

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dc.contributor.author Bambaren Alatrista, Celso Vladimir
dc.contributor.author Uyen, A.
dc.contributor.author Rodriguez, Miguel
dc.date.accessioned 2019-01-25T16:36:29Z
dc.date.available 2019-01-25T16:36:29Z
dc.date.issued 2017
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/4854
dc.description.abstract Introduction: A model prepared by National Civil Defense (INDECI; Lima, Peru) estimated that an earthquake with an intensity of 8.0Mw in front of the central coast of Peru would result in 51,019 deaths and 686,105 injured in districts of Metropolitan Lima and Callao. Using this information as a base, a study was designed to determine the characteristics of the demand for treatment in public hospitals and to estimate gaps in care in the hours immediately after such an event. Methods: A probabilistic model was designed that included the following variables: demand for hospital care; time of arrival at the hospitals; type of medical treatment; reason for hospital admission; and the need for specialized care like hemodialysis, blood transfusions, and surgical procedures. The values for these variables were obtained through a literature search of the databases of the MEDLINE medical bibliography, the Cochrane and SciELO libraries, and Google Scholar for information on earthquakes over the last 30 years of over magnitude 6.0 on the moment magnitude scale. Results: If a high-magnitude earthquake were to occur in Lima, it was estimated that between 23,328 and 178,387 injured would go to hospitals, of which between 4,666 and 121,303 would require inpatient care, while between 18,662 and 57,084 could be treated as outpatients. It was estimated that there would be an average of 8,768 cases of crush syndrome and 54,217 cases of other health problems. Enough blood would be required for 8,761 wounded in the first 24 hours. Furthermore, it was expected that there would be a deficit of hospital beds and operating theaters due to the high demand. Conclusion: Sudden and violent disasters, such as earthquakes, represent significant challenges for health systems and services. This study shows the deficit of preparation and capacity to respond to a possible high-magnitude earthquake. The study also showed there are not enough resources to face mega-disasters, especially in large cities. en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Cambridge University Press
dc.relation.ispartofseries Prehospital and Disaster Medicine
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject computer simulation en_US
dc.subject disasters en_US
dc.subject earthquake en_US
dc.subject Emergency Medicine en_US
dc.subject injuries en_US
dc.subject marmara earthquake en_US
dc.subject mass-casualty incidents en_US
dc.subject victims en_US
dc.title Estimation of the Demand for Hospital Care After a Possible High-Magnitude Earthquake in the City of Lima, Peru en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x16001254
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.02.08
dc.relation.issn 1945-1938


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