Predictive model for falling in Parkinson disease patients

Custodio, Nilton; Montesinos, Rosa; Cortijo, Patricia; Herrera-Perez, Eder; Castro-Suarez, Sheila; Cuenca-Alfaro, Jose; Lira, David

dc.contributor.author	Custodio, Nilton
dc.contributor.author	Lira, David
dc.contributor.author	Herrera-Perez, Eder
dc.contributor.author	Montesinos, Rosa
dc.contributor.author	Castro-Suarez, Sheila
dc.contributor.author	Cuenca-Alfaro, Jose
dc.contributor.author	Cortijo, Patricia
dc.date.accessioned	2019-02-06T14:45:12Z
dc.date.available	2019-02-06T14:45:12Z
dc.date.issued	2016
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/5050
dc.description.abstract	Background/aims: Falls are a common complication of advancing Parkinson's disease (PD). Although numerous risk factors are known, reliable predictors of future falls are still lacking. The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate model to predict falling in PD patients. Methods: Prospective cohort with forty-nine PD patients. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate predictive performance of the purposed multivariate model. Results: The median of PD duration and UPDRS-III score in the cohort was 6 years and 24 points, respectively. Falls occurred in 18 PD patients (30%). Predictive factors for falling identified by univariate analysis were age, PD duration, physical activity, and scores of UPDRS motor, FOG, ACE, IFS, PFAQ and GDS (p-value < 0.001), as well as fear of falling score (p-value = 0.04). The final multivariate model (PD duration, FOG, ACE, and physical activity) showed an AUC = 0.9282 (correctly classified = 89.83%; sensitivity = 92.68%; specificity = 83.33%). Conclusions: This study showed that our multivariate model have a high performance to predict falling in a sample of PD patients.	en_US
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.publisher	Elsevier
dc.relation.ispartofseries	eNeurologicalSci
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject	Accidental falls	en_US
dc.subject	Parkinson disease/complications	en_US
dc.subject	Predictive value of tests	en_US
dc.subject	Prospective studies	en_US
dc.title	Predictive model for falling in Parkinson disease patients	en_US
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ensci.2016.11.003
dc.subject.ocde	https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.02.25
dc.relation.issn	2405-6502