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Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults

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dc.contributor.author Quispe, Renato
dc.contributor.author Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos
dc.contributor.author Burroughs Pena, Melissa S.
dc.contributor.author Poterico, Julio A.
dc.contributor.author Gilman, Robert Hugh
dc.contributor.author Checkley, William
dc.contributor.author Bernabé Ortiz, Antonio
dc.contributor.author Huffman, Mark D.
dc.contributor.author Miranda, J. Jaime
dc.date.accessioned 2019-02-06T14:52:41Z
dc.date.available 2019-02-06T14:52:41Z
dc.date.issued 2015
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/5358
dc.description.abstract BACKGROUND: Short-term risk assessment tools for prediction of cardiovascular disease events are widely recommended in clinical practice and are used largely for single time-point estimations; however, persons with low predicted short-term risk may have higher risks across longer time horizons. METHODS AND RESULTS: We estimated short-term and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in a pooled population from 2 studies of Peruvian populations. Short-term risk was estimated using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. Lifetime risk was evaluated using the algorithm derived from the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Using previously published thresholds, participants were classified into 3 categories: low short-term and low lifetime risk, low short-term and high lifetime risk, and high short-term predicted risk. We also compared the distribution of these risk profiles across educational level, wealth index, and place of residence. We included 2844 participants (50% men, mean age 55.9 years [SD 10.2 years]) in the analysis. Approximately 1 of every 3 participants (34% [95% CI 33 to 36]) had a high short-term estimated cardiovascular disease risk. Among those with a low short-term predicted risk, more than half (54% [95% CI 52 to 56]) had a high lifetime predicted risk. Short-term and lifetime predicted risks were higher for participants with lower versus higher wealth indexes and educational levels and for those living in urban versus rural areas (P<0.01). These results were consistent by sex. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight potential shortcomings of using short-term risk tools for primary prevention strategies because a substantial proportion of Peruvian adults were classified as low short-term risk but high lifetime risk. Vulnerable adults, such as those from low socioeconomic status and those living in urban areas, may need greater attention regarding cardiovascular preventive strategies. en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Wiley
dc.relation.ispartofseries Journal of the American Heart Association. Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject Adult en_US
dc.subject Female en_US
dc.subject Humans en_US
dc.subject Male en_US
dc.subject Time Factors en_US
dc.subject Aged en_US
dc.subject Middle Aged en_US
dc.subject Peru/epidemiology en_US
dc.subject Prevalence en_US
dc.subject Risk Factors en_US
dc.subject Age Factors en_US
dc.subject Sex Factors en_US
dc.subject Income en_US
dc.subject Risk Assessment en_US
dc.subject cardiovascular risk en_US
dc.subject Urban Health en_US
dc.subject Rural Health en_US
dc.subject Educational Status en_US
dc.subject Residence Characteristics en_US
dc.subject Algorithms en_US
dc.subject Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis/epidemiology en_US
dc.subject lifetime cardiovascular risk en_US
dc.subject Pooled Cohort Risk Equations en_US
dc.subject risk estimation tools en_US
dc.subject short-term cardiovascular risk en_US
dc.title Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.115.002112
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.02.04
dc.relation.issn 2047-9980


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