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A validated agent-based model to study the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of malaria incidence in the rainforest environment

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dc.contributor.author Pizzitutti, Francesco
dc.contributor.author Pan, William
dc.contributor.author Barbieri, Alisson
dc.contributor.author Miranda, J. Jaime
dc.contributor.author Feingold, Beth
dc.contributor.author Guedes, Gilvan R.
dc.contributor.author Alarcon-Valenzuela, Javiera
dc.contributor.author Mena, Carlos F.
dc.date.accessioned 2019-02-06T14:53:06Z
dc.date.available 2019-02-06T14:53:06Z
dc.date.issued 2015
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/5362
dc.description.abstract BACKGROUND: The Amazon environment has been exposed in the last decades to radical changes that have been accompanied by a remarkable rise of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The malaria transmission process is highly influenced by factors such as spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the environment and individual-based characteristics of mosquitoes and humans populations. All these determinant factors can be simulated effectively trough agent-based models. METHODS: This paper presents a validated agent-based model of local-scale malaria transmission. The model reproduces the environment of a typical riverine village in the northern Peruvian Amazon, where the malaria transmission is highly seasonal and apparently associated with flooding of large areas caused by the neighbouring river. Agents representing humans, mosquitoes and the two species of Plasmodium (P. falciparum and P. vivax) are simulated in a spatially explicit representation of the environment around the village. The model environment includes: climate, people houses positions and elevation. A representation of changes in the mosquito breeding areas extension caused by the river flooding is also included in the simulation environment. RESULTS: A calibration process was carried out to reproduce the variations of the malaria monthly incidence over a period of 3 years. The calibrated model is also able to reproduce the spatial heterogeneities of local scale malaria transmission. A "what if" eradication strategy scenario is proposed: if the mosquito breeding sites are eliminated through mosquito larva habitat management in a buffer area extended at least 200 m around the village, the malaria transmission is eradicated from the village. CONCLUSIONS: The use of agent-based models can reproduce effectively the spatiotemporal variations of the malaria transmission in a low endemicity environment dominated by river floodings like in the Amazon. en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher BioMed Central
dc.relation.ispartofseries Malaria Journal
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject Humans en_US
dc.subject Animals en_US
dc.subject Incidence en_US
dc.subject Spatio-Temporal Analysis en_US
dc.subject Models, Statistical en_US
dc.subject Topography, Medical en_US
dc.subject Computer Simulation en_US
dc.subject Culicidae en_US
dc.subject Disease Transmission, Infectious en_US
dc.subject Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology/transmission en_US
dc.subject Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology/transmission en_US
dc.subject Rainforest en_US
dc.subject Tropical Climate en_US
dc.title A validated agent-based model to study the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of malaria incidence in the rainforest environment en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-015-1030-7
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.07
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.08
dc.relation.issn 1475-2875


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