Dengue incidence and sociodemographic conditions in Pucallpa, Peruvian Amazon: what role for modification of the dengue-temperature relationship?

Harper, Sherilee L.; Coomes, Oliver; Charette, Margot; Llanos Cuentas, Elmer Alejandro; Cárcamo Cavagnaro, César Paul Eugenio; Kulkarni, Manisha; Berrang-Ford, Lea

dc.contributor.author	Charette, Margot
dc.contributor.author	Berrang-Ford, Lea
dc.contributor.author	Coomes, Oliver
dc.contributor.author	Llanos Cuentas, Elmer Alejandro
dc.contributor.author	Cárcamo Cavagnaro, César Paul Eugenio
dc.contributor.author	Kulkarni, Manisha
dc.contributor.author	Harper, Sherilee L.
dc.date.accessioned	2020-07-14T00:01:03Z
dc.date.available	2020-07-14T00:01:03Z
dc.date.issued	2020
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/8260
dc.description.abstract	Dengue is a climate-sensitive disease with an increasing global burden. Although the relationship between meteorological conditions and dengue incidence is well established, less is known about the modifying nature of sociodemographic variables on that relationship. We assess the strength and direction of sociodemographic effect modification of the temperature-dengue relationship in the second largest city of the Peruvian Amazon to identify populations that may have heightened vulnerability to dengue under varying climate conditions. We used weekly dengue counts and averaged meteorological variables to evaluate the association between disease incidence, meteorological exposures, and sociodemographic effect modifiers (gender, age, and district) in negative binomial regression models. District was included to consider geographical effect modification. We found that being a young child or elderly, being female, and living in the district of Manantay increased dengue's incidence rate ratio (IRR) as a result of 1°C increase in weekly mean temperature (IRR = 2.99, 95% CI: 1.99-4.50 for women less than 5 years old and IRR = 2.86, 95% CI: = 1.93-4.22 for women older than 65 years, both estimates valid for the rainy season). The effect of temperature on dengue depended on season, with stronger effects during rainy seasons. Sociodemographic variables can provide options for intervention to mitigate health impacts with a changing climate. Our results indicate that patterns of baseline risk between regions and sociodemographic conditions can differ substantially from trends in climate sensitivity. These results challenge the assumption that the distribution of climate change impacts will be patterned similarly to existing social gradients in health.	en_US
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.publisher	American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
dc.relation.ispartofseries	American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH Journal)
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.subject	Adolescent	en_US
dc.subject	Adult	en_US
dc.subject	Female	en_US
dc.subject	Humans	en_US
dc.subject	Male	en_US
dc.subject	Young Adult	en_US
dc.subject	Child, Preschool	en_US
dc.subject	Peru/epidemiology	en_US
dc.subject	Aged	en_US
dc.subject	Middle Aged	en_US
dc.subject	Child	en_US
dc.subject	Time Factors	en_US
dc.subject	Socioeconomic Factors	en_US
dc.subject	Incidence	en_US
dc.subject	Seasons	en_US
dc.subject	Climate Change	en_US
dc.subject	Dengue/epidemiology/etiology	en_US
dc.subject	Temperature	en_US
dc.title	Dengue incidence and sociodemographic conditions in Pucallpa, Peruvian Amazon: what role for modification of the dengue-temperature relationship?	en_US
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.19-0033
dc.subject.ocde	https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.06
dc.relation.issn	1476-1645