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Dengue incidence and sociodemographic conditions in Pucallpa, Peruvian Amazon: what role for modification of the dengue-temperature relationship?

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dc.contributor.author Charette, Margot
dc.contributor.author Berrang-Ford, Lea
dc.contributor.author Coomes, Oliver
dc.contributor.author Llanos Cuentas, Elmer Alejandro
dc.contributor.author Cárcamo Cavagnaro, César Paul Eugenio
dc.contributor.author Kulkarni, Manisha
dc.contributor.author Harper, Sherilee L.
dc.date.accessioned 2020-07-14T00:01:03Z
dc.date.available 2020-07-14T00:01:03Z
dc.date.issued 2020
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/8260
dc.description.abstract Dengue is a climate-sensitive disease with an increasing global burden. Although the relationship between meteorological conditions and dengue incidence is well established, less is known about the modifying nature of sociodemographic variables on that relationship. We assess the strength and direction of sociodemographic effect modification of the temperature-dengue relationship in the second largest city of the Peruvian Amazon to identify populations that may have heightened vulnerability to dengue under varying climate conditions. We used weekly dengue counts and averaged meteorological variables to evaluate the association between disease incidence, meteorological exposures, and sociodemographic effect modifiers (gender, age, and district) in negative binomial regression models. District was included to consider geographical effect modification. We found that being a young child or elderly, being female, and living in the district of Manantay increased dengue's incidence rate ratio (IRR) as a result of 1°C increase in weekly mean temperature (IRR = 2.99, 95% CI: 1.99-4.50 for women less than 5 years old and IRR = 2.86, 95% CI: = 1.93-4.22 for women older than 65 years, both estimates valid for the rainy season). The effect of temperature on dengue depended on season, with stronger effects during rainy seasons. Sociodemographic variables can provide options for intervention to mitigate health impacts with a changing climate. Our results indicate that patterns of baseline risk between regions and sociodemographic conditions can differ substantially from trends in climate sensitivity. These results challenge the assumption that the distribution of climate change impacts will be patterned similarly to existing social gradients in health. en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
dc.relation.ispartofseries American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH Journal)
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject Adolescent en_US
dc.subject Adult en_US
dc.subject Female en_US
dc.subject Humans en_US
dc.subject Male en_US
dc.subject Young Adult en_US
dc.subject Child, Preschool en_US
dc.subject Peru/epidemiology en_US
dc.subject Aged en_US
dc.subject Middle Aged en_US
dc.subject Child en_US
dc.subject Time Factors en_US
dc.subject Socioeconomic Factors en_US
dc.subject Incidence en_US
dc.subject Seasons en_US
dc.subject Climate Change en_US
dc.subject Dengue/epidemiology/etiology en_US
dc.subject Temperature en_US
dc.title Dengue incidence and sociodemographic conditions in Pucallpa, Peruvian Amazon: what role for modification of the dengue-temperature relationship? en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.19-0033
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.06
dc.relation.issn 1476-1645

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