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Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005-2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change

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dc.contributor.author Delahoy, Miranda J.
dc.contributor.author Cárcamo, César
dc.contributor.author Huerta, Adrian
dc.contributor.author Lavado, Waldo
dc.contributor.author Escajadillo, Yury
dc.contributor.author Ordoñez, Luís
dc.contributor.author Vasquez, Vanessa
dc.contributor.author Lopman, Benjamin
dc.contributor.author Clasen, Thomas
dc.contributor.author Gonzales, Gustavo F.
dc.contributor.author Steenland, Kyle
dc.contributor.author Levy, Karen
dc.date.accessioned 2021-04-13T20:50:59Z
dc.date.available 2021-04-13T20:50:59Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/9130
dc.description.abstract BACKGROUND: Global temperatures are projected to rise by ≥2 °C by the end of the century, with expected impacts on infectious disease incidence. Establishing the historic relationship between temperature and childhood diarrhea is important to inform future vulnerability under projected climate change scenarios. METHODS: We compiled a national dataset from Peruvian government data sources, including weekly diarrhea surveillance records, annual administered doses of rotavirus vaccination, annual piped water access estimates, and daily temperature estimates. We used generalized estimating equations to quantify the association between ambient temperature and childhood (< 5 years) weekly reported clinic visits for diarrhea from 2005 to 2015 in 194 of 195 Peruvian provinces. We estimated the combined effect of the mean daily high temperature lagged 1, 2, and 3 weeks, in the eras before (2005-2009) and after (2010-2015) widespread rotavirus vaccination in Peru and examined the influence of varying levels of piped water access. RESULTS: Nationally, an increase of 1 °C in the temperature across the three prior weeks was associated with a 3.8% higher rate of childhood clinic visits for diarrhea [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.04]. Controlling for temperature, there was a significantly higher incidence rate of childhood diarrhea clinic visits during moderate/strong El Niño events (IRR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04) and during the dry season (IRR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.03). Nationally, there was no evidence that the association between temperature and the childhood diarrhea rate changed between the pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine eras, or that higher levels of access to piped water mitigated the effects of temperature on the childhood diarrhea rate. CONCLUSIONS: Higher temperatures and intensifying El Niño events that may result from climate change could increase clinic visits for childhood diarrhea in Peru. Findings underscore the importance of considering climate in assessments of childhood diarrhea in Peru and globally, and can inform regional vulnerability assessments and mitigation planning efforts. en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher BioMed Central
dc.relation.ispartof urn:issn:1476-069X
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject Article en_US
dc.subject controlled study en_US
dc.subject human en_US
dc.subject major clinical study en_US
dc.subject priority journal en_US
dc.subject climate change en_US
dc.subject Peru en_US
dc.subject child en_US
dc.subject incidence en_US
dc.subject preschool child en_US
dc.subject diarrhea en_US
dc.subject child health en_US
dc.subject Climate change en_US
dc.subject confidence interval en_US
dc.subject data set en_US
dc.subject Diarrhea en_US
dc.subject diarrheal disease en_US
dc.subject disease incidence en_US
dc.subject disease predisposition en_US
dc.subject disease surveillance en_US
dc.subject drinking water en_US
dc.subject Drinking water en_US
dc.subject dry season en_US
dc.subject El Nino en_US
dc.subject El Niño en_US
dc.subject environmental temperature en_US
dc.subject high temperature en_US
dc.subject historical period en_US
dc.subject infant en_US
dc.subject infectious disease en_US
dc.subject meteorological phenomena en_US
dc.subject rainy season en_US
dc.subject Rotavirus en_US
dc.subject Rotavirus infection en_US
dc.subject Rotavirus vaccine en_US
dc.subject tap water en_US
dc.subject Temperature en_US
dc.subject time series analysis en_US
dc.subject vaccination en_US
dc.subject virus transmission en_US
dc.subject vulnerability en_US
dc.subject water quality en_US
dc.title Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005-2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-021-00703-4
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.02.00 es_PE
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.05


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