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The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on rabies reemergence in Latin America: The case of Arequipa, Peru

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dc.contributor.author Raynor, Brinkley
dc.contributor.author Díaz Espinoza, Elvis Wildran
dc.contributor.author Shinnick, Julianna
dc.contributor.author Zegarra, Edith
dc.contributor.author Monroy, Ynes
dc.contributor.author Mena, Claudia
dc.contributor.author De la Puente León, Virginia Micaela
dc.contributor.author Levy, Michael Z.
dc.contributor.author Castillo Neyra, Ricardo
dc.date.accessioned 2021-06-08T15:46:15Z
dc.date.available 2021-06-08T15:46:15Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/9513
dc.description.abstract In Latin America, there has been tremendous progress towards eliminating canine rabies. Major components of rabies elimination programs leading to these successes have been constant and regular surveillance for rabid dogs and uninterrupted yearly mass dog vaccination campaigns. Unfortunately, vital measures to control COVID-19 have had the negative trade-off of jeopardizing these rabies elimination and prevention activities. We aimed to assess the effect of interrupting canine rabies surveillance and mass dog vaccination campaigns on rabies trends. We built a deterministic compartment model of dog rabies dynamics to create a conceptual framework for how different disruptions may affect rabies virus transmission. We parameterized the model for conditions found in Arequipa, Peru, a city with active rabies virus transmission. We examined our results over a range of plausible values for R0 (1.36-2.0). Also, we prospectively evaluated surveillance data during the pandemic to detect temporal changes. Our model suggests that a decrease in canine vaccination coverage as well as decreased surveillance could lead to a sharp rise in canine rabies within months. These results were consistent over all plausible values of R0. Surveillance data from late 2020 and early 2021 confirms that in Arequipa, Peru, rabies cases are on an increasing trajectory. The rising rabies trends in Arequipa, if indicative to the region as whole, suggest that the achievements made in Latin America towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies may be in jeopardy en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Public Library of Science
dc.relation.ispartofseries PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject Rabies en_US
dc.subject Dogs en_US
dc.subject Vaccination and immunization en_US
dc.subject COVID 19 en_US
dc.subject Pandemics en_US
dc.subject Peru en_US
dc.subject Infectious disease epidemiology en_US
dc.subject Rabies virus en_US
dc.title The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on rabies reemergence in Latin America: The case of Arequipa, Peru en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009414
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.06
dc.relation.issn 1935-2735


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