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A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Peru

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dc.contributor.author Meisner, Julianne
dc.contributor.author Frisbie, Lauren A.
dc.contributor.author Munayco, Cesar V.
dc.contributor.author Garcia Funegra, Patricia Jannet
dc.contributor.author Cárcamo Cavagnaro, César Paul Eugenio
dc.contributor.author Morin, Cory W.
dc.contributor.author Pigott, David M.
dc.contributor.author Rabinowitz, Peter M.
dc.date.accessioned 2021-10-04T23:00:55Z
dc.date.available 2021-10-04T23:00:55Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/9772
dc.description.abstract Background: A proactive approach to preventing and responding to emerging infectious diseases is critical to global health security. We present a three-stage approach to modeling the spatial distribution of outbreak vulnerability to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Peru. Methods: Extending a framework developed for modeling hemorrhagic fever vulnerability in Africa, we modeled outbreak vulnerability in three stages: index case potential (stage 1), outbreak receptivity (stage 2), and epidemic potential (stage 3), stratifying scores on season and El Nino events. Subsequently, we evaluated the validity of these scores using dengue surveillance data and spatial models. Results: We found high validity for stage 1 and 2 scores, but not stage 3 scores. Vulnerability was highest in Selva Baja and Costa, and in summer and during El Nino events, with index case potential (stage 1) being high in both regions but outbreak receptivity (stage 2) being generally high in Selva Baja only. Conclusions: Stage 1 and 2 scores are well-suited to predicting outbreaks of Ae. aegypti-vectored diseases in this setting, however stage 3 scores appear better suited to diseases with direct human-to-human transmission. To prevent outbreaks, measures to detect index cases should be targeted to both Selva Baja and Costa, while Selva Baja should be prioritized for healthcare system strengthening. Successful extension of this framework from hemorrhagic fevers in Africa to an arbovirus in Latin America indicates its broad utility for outbreak and pandemic preparedness and response activities. en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher BioMed Central
dc.relation.ispartofseries BMC Infectious Diseases
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject Outbreak en_US
dc.subject Epidemic en_US
dc.subject Spatial epidemiology en_US
dc.subject Vectorborne diseases en_US
dc.subject Perú en_US
dc.subject Dengue en_US
dc.title A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Peru en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06530-9
dc.relation.issn 1471-2334


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