Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study

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dc.contributor.author Sartorius, B.
dc.contributor.author VanderHeide, J.D.
dc.contributor.author Yang, M.
dc.contributor.author Goosmann, E.A.
dc.contributor.author Hon, J.
dc.contributor.author Haeuser, E.
dc.contributor.author Cork, M.A.
dc.contributor.author Perkins, S.
dc.contributor.author Jahagirdar, D.
dc.contributor.author Schaeffer, L.E.
dc.contributor.author Serfes, A.L.
dc.contributor.author LeGrand, K.E.
dc.contributor.author Abbastabar, H.
dc.contributor.author Abebo, Z.H.
dc.contributor.author Abosetugn, A.E.
dc.contributor.author Abu-Gharbieh, E.
dc.contributor.author Accrombessi, M.M.K.
dc.contributor.author Adebayo, O.M.
dc.contributor.author Adegbosin, A.E.
dc.contributor.author Adekanmbi, V.
dc.contributor.author Adetokunboh, O.O.
dc.contributor.author Adeyinka, D.A.
dc.contributor.author Ahinkorah, B.O.
dc.contributor.author Ahmadi, K.
dc.contributor.author Ahmed, M.B.
dc.contributor.author Akalu, Y.
dc.contributor.author Akinyemi, O.O.
dc.contributor.author Akinyemi, R.O.
dc.contributor.author Aklilu, A.
dc.contributor.author Akunna, C.J.
dc.contributor.author Alahdab, F.
dc.contributor.author Al-Aly, Z.
dc.contributor.author Alam, N.
dc.contributor.author Alamneh, A.A.
dc.contributor.author Alanzi, T.M.
dc.contributor.author Alemu, B.W.
dc.contributor.author Alhassan, R.K.
dc.contributor.author Ali, T.
dc.contributor.author Alipour, V.
dc.contributor.author Amini, S.
dc.contributor.author Ancuceanu, R.
dc.contributor.author Ansari, F.
dc.contributor.author Anteneh, Z.A.
dc.contributor.author Anvari, D.
dc.contributor.author Anwer, R.
dc.contributor.author Appiah, S.C.Y.
dc.contributor.author Arabloo, J.
dc.contributor.author Asemahagn, M.A.
dc.contributor.author Asghari Jafarabadi, M.
dc.contributor.author Asmare, W.N.
dc.contributor.author Atnafu, D.D.
dc.contributor.author Atout, M.M.W.
dc.contributor.author Atreya, A.
dc.contributor.author Ausloos, M.
dc.contributor.author Awedew, A.F.
dc.contributor.author Ayala Quintanilla, B.P.
dc.contributor.author Ayanore, M.A.
dc.contributor.author Aynalem, Y.A.
dc.contributor.author Ayza, M.A.
dc.contributor.author Azari, S.
dc.contributor.author Azene, Z.N.
dc.contributor.author Babar, Z.-U.-D.
dc.contributor.author Baig, A.A.
dc.contributor.author Balakrishnan, S.
dc.contributor.author Banach, M.
dc.contributor.author Bärnighausen, T.W.
dc.contributor.author Basu, S.
dc.contributor.author Bayati, M.
dc.contributor.author Bedi, N.
dc.contributor.author Bekuma, T.T.
dc.contributor.author Bezabhe, W.M.M.
dc.contributor.author Bhagavathula, A.S.
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dc.contributor.author Bhattacharyya, K.
dc.contributor.author Bhutta, Z.A.
dc.contributor.author Bibi, S.
dc.contributor.author Bikbov, B.
dc.contributor.author Birhan, T.A.
dc.contributor.author Bitew, Z.W.
dc.contributor.author Bockarie, M.J.
dc.contributor.author Boloor, A.
dc.contributor.author Brady, O.J.
dc.contributor.author Bragazzi, N.L.
dc.contributor.author Briko, A.N.
dc.contributor.author Briko, N.I.
dc.contributor.author Burugina Nagaraja, S.
dc.contributor.author Butt, Z.A.
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dc.contributor.author Chattu, V.K.
dc.contributor.author Chowdhury, M.A.K.
dc.contributor.author Chu, D.-T.
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dc.contributor.author Cormier, N.M.
dc.contributor.author Cowden, R.G.
dc.contributor.author Culquichicon, C.
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dc.contributor.author Davis Weaver, N.
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dc.contributor.author Deribe, K.
dc.contributor.author Desta, A.A.
dc.contributor.author Deuba, K.
dc.contributor.author Dharmaratne, S.D.
dc.contributor.author Dhungana, G.P.
dc.contributor.author Diaz, D.
dc.contributor.author Djalalinia, S.
dc.contributor.author Doku, P.N.
dc.contributor.author Dubljanin, E.
dc.contributor.author Duko, B.
dc.contributor.author Eagan, A.W.
dc.contributor.author Earl, L.
dc.contributor.author Eaton, J.W.
dc.contributor.author Effiong, A.
dc.contributor.author El Sayed Zaki, M.
dc.contributor.author El Tantawi, M.
dc.contributor.author Elayedath, R.
dc.contributor.author El-Jaafary, S.I.
dc.contributor.author Elsharkawy, A.
dc.contributor.author Eskandarieh, S.
dc.contributor.author Eyawo, O.
dc.contributor.author Ezzikouri, S.
dc.contributor.author Fasanmi, A.O.
dc.contributor.author Fasil, A.
dc.contributor.author Fauk, N.K.
dc.contributor.author Feigin, V.L.
dc.contributor.author Ferede, T.Y.
dc.contributor.author Fernandes, E.
dc.contributor.author Fischer, F.
dc.contributor.author Foigt, N.A.
dc.contributor.author Folayan, M.O.
dc.contributor.author Foroutan, M.
dc.contributor.author Francis, J.M.
dc.contributor.author Fukumoto, T.
dc.contributor.author Gad, M.M.
dc.contributor.author Geberemariyam, B.S.
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dc.contributor.author Ghadiri, K.
dc.contributor.author Ghashghaee, A.
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dc.contributor.author Gugnani, H.C.
dc.contributor.author Guido, D.
dc.contributor.author Guled, R.A.
dc.contributor.author Hall, B.J.
dc.contributor.author Hamidi, S.
dc.contributor.author Handiso, D.W.
dc.contributor.author Hargono, A.
dc.contributor.author Hashi, A.
dc.contributor.author Hassanipour, S.
dc.contributor.author Hassankhani, H.
dc.contributor.author Hayat, K.
dc.contributor.author Herteliu, C.
dc.contributor.author de Hidru, H.D.
dc.contributor.author Holla, R.
dc.contributor.author Hosgood, H.D.
dc.contributor.author Hossain, N.
dc.contributor.author Hosseini, M.
dc.contributor.author Hosseinzadeh, M.
dc.contributor.author Househ, M.
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dc.contributor.author Ibitoye, S.E.
dc.contributor.author Ilesanmi, O.S.
dc.contributor.author Ilic, I.M.
dc.contributor.author Ilic, M.D.
dc.contributor.author Irvani, S.S.N.
dc.contributor.author Iwu, C.C.D.
dc.contributor.author Iwu, C.J.
dc.contributor.author Iyamu, I.O.
dc.contributor.author Jain, V.
dc.contributor.author Jakovljevic, M.
dc.contributor.author Jalilian, F.
dc.contributor.author Jha, R.P.
dc.contributor.author Johnson, K.B.
dc.contributor.author Joshua, V.
dc.contributor.author Joukar, F.
dc.contributor.author Jozwiak, J.J.
dc.contributor.author Kabir, A.
dc.contributor.author Kalankesh, L.R.
dc.contributor.author Kalhor, R.
dc.contributor.author Kamath, A.
dc.contributor.author Kamyari, N.
dc.contributor.author Kanchan, T.
dc.contributor.author Karami Matin, B.
dc.contributor.author Karch, A.
dc.contributor.author Karimi, S.E.
dc.contributor.author Kasa, A.S.
dc.contributor.author Kassahun, G.
dc.contributor.author Kayode, G.A.
dc.contributor.author Kazemi Karyani, A.
dc.contributor.author Keiyoro, P.N.
dc.contributor.author Kelkay, B.
dc.contributor.author Khalid, N.
dc.contributor.author Khan, G.
dc.contributor.author Khan, J.
dc.contributor.author Khan, M.N.
dc.contributor.author Khatab, K.
dc.contributor.author Khazaei, S.
dc.contributor.author Kim, Y.J.
dc.contributor.author Kisa, A.
dc.contributor.author Kisa, S.
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dc.contributor.author Kopec, J.A.
dc.contributor.author Kosen, S.
dc.contributor.author Koulmane Laxminarayana, S.
dc.contributor.author Koyanagi, A.
dc.contributor.author Krishan, K.
dc.contributor.author Kuate Defo, B.
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dc.contributor.author Kumar, M.
dc.contributor.author Kumar, N.
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dc.contributor.author Kusuma, D.
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dc.contributor.author Kyu, H.H.
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dc.contributor.author Lal, D.K.
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dc.contributor.author Lee, P.H.
dc.contributor.author Leshargie, C.T.
dc.contributor.author Li, B.
dc.contributor.author Liu, X.
dc.contributor.author Lopukhov, P.D.
dc.contributor.author Amin, H.I.M.
dc.contributor.author Madi, D.
dc.contributor.author Mahasha, P.W.
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dc.contributor.author Maleki, S.
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dc.contributor.author Miller, T.R.
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dc.contributor.author Mohamad, O.
dc.contributor.author Mohammad, Y.
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dc.contributor.author Mohammed, J.A.
dc.contributor.author Mohammed, S.
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dc.contributor.author Molokhia, M.
dc.contributor.author Moradi, M.
dc.contributor.author Moradi, Y.
dc.contributor.author Moradzadeh, R.
dc.contributor.author Moraga, P.
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dc.contributor.author Tessema, Z.T.
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dc.contributor.author Tolani, M.A.
dc.contributor.author Topor-Madry, R.
dc.contributor.author Torrado, M.
dc.contributor.author Tovani-Palone, M.R.
dc.contributor.author Traini, E.
dc.contributor.author Tsai, A.C.
dc.contributor.author Tsegaye, G.W.
dc.contributor.author Ullah, I.
dc.contributor.author Ullah, S.
dc.contributor.author Umeokonkwo, C.D.
dc.contributor.author Unnikrishnan, B.
dc.contributor.author Vardavas, C.
dc.contributor.author Violante, F.S.
dc.contributor.author Vo, B.
dc.contributor.author Wado, Y.D.
dc.contributor.author Waheed, Y.
dc.contributor.author Wamai, R.G.
dc.contributor.author Wang, Y.
dc.contributor.author Ward, P.
dc.contributor.author Werdecker, A.
dc.contributor.author Wickramasinghe, N.D.
dc.contributor.author Wijeratne, T.
dc.contributor.author Wiysonge, C.S.
dc.contributor.author Wondmeneh, T.G.
dc.contributor.author Yamada, T.
dc.contributor.author Yaya, S.
dc.contributor.author Yeshaw, Y.
dc.contributor.author Yeshitila, Y.G.
dc.contributor.author Yilma, M.T.
dc.contributor.author Yip, P.
dc.contributor.author Yonemoto, N.
dc.contributor.author Yosef, T.
dc.contributor.author Yusefzadeh, H.
dc.contributor.author Zaidi, S.S.
dc.contributor.author Zaki, L.
dc.contributor.author Zamanian, M.
dc.contributor.author Zastrozhin, M.S.
dc.contributor.author Zastrozhina, A.
dc.contributor.author Zewdie, D.T.
dc.contributor.author Zhang, Y.
dc.contributor.author Zhang, Z.-J.
dc.contributor.author Ziapour, A.
dc.contributor.author Hay, S.I.
dc.contributor.author Dwyer-Lindgren, L.
dc.contributor.author LBD HIV Incidence Mortality Collaborators
dc.date.accessioned 2021-10-04T23:01:01Z
dc.date.available 2021-10-04T23:01:01Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/9893
dc.description.abstract Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Elsevier
dc.relation.ispartofseries Lancet. HIV
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject adolescent en_US
dc.subject Adolescent en_US
dc.subject adult en_US
dc.subject Adult en_US
dc.subject Africa en_US
dc.subject Africa en_US
dc.subject Northern en_US
dc.subject anti human immunodeficiency virus agent en_US
dc.subject Anti-HIV Agents en_US
dc.subject antiretroviral therapy en_US
dc.subject article en_US
dc.subject blood en_US
dc.subject female en_US
dc.subject Female en_US
dc.subject health care planning en_US
dc.subject HIV Antibodies en_US
dc.subject HIV Infections en_US
dc.subject human en_US
dc.subject Human immunodeficiency virus antibody en_US
dc.subject Human immunodeficiency virus infected patient en_US
dc.subject Human immunodeficiency virus infection en_US
dc.subject Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence en_US
dc.subject Humans en_US
dc.subject incidence en_US
dc.subject Incidence en_US
dc.subject Lesotho en_US
dc.subject male en_US
dc.subject Male en_US
dc.subject Mauritania en_US
dc.subject middle aged en_US
dc.subject Middle Aged en_US
dc.subject mortality en_US
dc.subject mortality rate en_US
dc.subject Mozambique en_US
dc.subject prenatal care en_US
dc.subject Seroepidemiologic Studies en_US
dc.subject seroepidemiology en_US
dc.subject uncertainty en_US
dc.subject young adult en_US
dc.subject Young Adult en_US
dc.title Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(21)00051-5
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.01.03
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.06.02
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.09
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.08
dc.relation.issn 2352-3018


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