Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia

High-resolution marine data and transient simulations support orbital forcing of ENSO amplitude since the mid-Holocene

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dc.contributor.author Carré, Matthieu
dc.contributor.author Braconnot, Pascale
dc.contributor.author Elliot, Mary
dc.contributor.author d'Agostino, Roberta
dc.contributor.author Schurer, Andrew
dc.contributor.author Shi, Xiaoxu
dc.contributor.author Marti, Oliver
dc.contributor.author Lohmann, Gerrit
dc.contributor.author Jungclaus, Johann
dc.contributor.author Cheddadi, Rachid
dc.contributor.author Abdelkader-di Carlo, Isma
dc.contributor.author Cardich Salazar, Jorge Aquiles
dc.contributor.author Ochoa, Diana
dc.contributor.author Salas-Gismondi, Rodolfo
dc.contributor.author Pérez, Alexander
dc.contributor.author Romero, Pedro E.
dc.contributor.author Turcq, Bruno
dc.contributor.author Corrège, Thierry
dc.contributor.author Harrison, Sandy P.
dc.date.accessioned 2021-10-04T23:00:58Z
dc.date.available 2021-10-04T23:00:58Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/9834
dc.description.abstract Lack of constraint on spatial and long-term temporal variability of the El Niño southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its sensitivity to external forcing limit our ability to evaluate climate models and ENSO future projections. Current knowledge of Holocene ENSO variability derived from paleoclimate reconstructions does not separate the role of insolation forcing from internal climate variability. Using an updated synthesis of coral and bivalve monthly resolved records, we build composite records of seasonality and interannual variability in four regions of the tropical Pacific: Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), Western Pacific (WP) and South West Pacific (SWP). An analysis of the uncertainties due to the sampling of chaotic multidecadal to centennial variability by short records allows for an objective comparison with transient simulations (mid-Holocene to present) performed using four different Earth System models. Sea surface temperature and pseudo-δ18O are used in model-data comparisons to assess the potential influence of hydroclimate change on records. We confirm the significance of the Holocene ENSO minimum (HEM) 3-6ka compared to low frequency unforced modulation of ENSO, with a reduction of ENSO variance of ∼50 % in EP and ∼80 % in CP. The approach suggests that the increasing trend of ENSO since 6ka can be attributed to insolation, while models underestimate ENSO sensitivity to orbital forcing by a factor of 4.7 compared to data, even when accounting for the large multidecadal variability. Precession-induced change in seasonal temperature range is positively linked to ENSO variance in EP and to a lesser extent in other regions, in both models and observations. Our regional approach yields insights into the past spatial expression of ENSO across the tropical Pacific. In the SWP, today under the influence of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), interannual variability was increased by ∼200 % during the HEM, indicating that SPCZ variability is independent from ENSO on millennial time scales en_US
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Elsevier
dc.relation.ispartofseries Quaternary Science Reviews
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.subject Anthozoa en_US
dc.subject Atmospheric pressure en_US
dc.subject Bivalves en_US
dc.subject Bivalvia en_US
dc.subject Climate models en_US
dc.subject Climatology en_US
dc.subject Coral en_US
dc.subject Corals en_US
dc.subject Earth system model en_US
dc.subject Earth system models en_US
dc.subject Eastern pacific en_US
dc.subject El Nino southern oscillation en_US
dc.subject El niño southern oscillation en_US
dc.subject Holocene en_US
dc.subject Holocenes en_US
dc.subject Incident solar radiation en_US
dc.subject Insolation en_US
dc.subject Interannual variability en_US
dc.subject Molluscs en_US
dc.subject Oceanography en_US
dc.subject Orbital forcing en_US
dc.subject Orbits en_US
dc.subject Surface waters en_US
dc.subject Transient simulation en_US
dc.subject Tropical pacific en_US
dc.subject Tropics en_US
dc.subject Uncertainty analysis en_US
dc.subject West pacific en_US
dc.title High-resolution marine data and transient simulations support orbital forcing of ENSO amplitude since the mid-Holocene en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107125
dc.relation.issn 1873-457X


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