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Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants

Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Bentham, James; Stevens, Gretchen A.; Zhou, Bin; Danaei, Goodarz; Lu, Yuan; Bixby, Honor; Cowan, Melanie J.; Riley, Leanne M.; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Fortunato, Lea; Taddei, Cristina; Bennett, James E.; Ikeda, Nayu; Khang, Young-Ho; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Laxmaiah, Avula; Li, Yanping; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Miranda, J. Jaime; Mostafa, Aya; Turley, Maria L.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Gunter, Marc; Ezzati, Majid; Abdeen, Ziad A.; Hamid, Zargar Abdul; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.; Acosta-Cazares, Benjamin; Adams, Robert; Aekplakorn, Wichai; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A.; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Ali, Mohamed M.; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alvarez-Pedrerol, Mar; Aly, Eman; Amouyel, Philippe; Amuzu, Antoinette; Andersen, Lars Bo; Anderssen, Sigmund A.; Andrade, Dolores S.; Anjana, Ranjit Mohan; Aounallah-Skhiri, Hajer; Ariansen, Inger; Aris, Tahir; Arlappa, Nimmathota; Arveiler, Dominique; Assah, Felix K.; Avdicova, Maria; Azizi, Fereidoun; Babu, Bontha V.; Balakrishna, Nagalla; Bandosz, Piotr; Banegas, Jose R.; Barbagallo, Carlo M.; Barcelo, Alberto; Barkat, Amina; Barros, Mauro V.; Bata, Iqbal; Batieha, Anwar M.; Batista, Rosangela L.; Baur, Louise A.; Beaglehole, Robert; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Benet, Mikhail; Bernabé Ortiz, Antonio; Bernotiene, Gailute; Bettiol, Heloisa; Bhagyalaxmi, Aroor; Bharadwaj, Sumit; Bhargava, Santosh K.; Bhatti, Zaid; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Bi, HongSheng; Bi, Yufang; Bjerregaard, Peter; Bjertness, Espen; Bjertness, Marius B.; Bjorkelund, Cecilia; Blake, Margaret; Blokstra, Anneke; Bo, Simona; Bobak, Martin; Boddy, Lynne M.; Boehm, Bernhard O.; Boeing, Heiner; Boissonnet, Carlos P.; Bongard, Vanina; Bovet, Pascal; Braeckman, Lutgart; Bragt, Marjolijn C. E.; Brajkovich, Imperia; Branca, Francesco; Breckenkamp, Juergen; Brenner, Hermann; Brewster, Lizzy M.; Brian, Garry R.; Bruno, Graziella; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. B(as); Bugge, Anna; Burns, Con; Cabrera de Leon, Antonio; Cacciottolo, Joseph; Cama, Tilema; Cameron, Christine; Camolas, Jose; Can, Gunay; Candido, Ana Paula C.; Capuano, Vincenzo; Cardoso, Viviane C.; Carvalho, Maria J.; Casanueva, Felipe F.; Casas, Juan-Pablo; Caserta, Carmelo A.; Castetbon, Katia; Chamukuttan, Snehalatha; Chan, Angelique W.; Chan, Queenie; Chaturvedi, Himanshu K.; Chaturvedi, Nishi; Chen, Chien-Jen; Chen, Fangfang; Chen, Huashuai; Chen, Shuohua; Chen, Zhengming; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Chetrit, Angela; Chiolero, Arnaud; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chirita-Emandi, Adela; Cho, Yumi; Christensen, Kaare; Chudek, Jerzy; Cifkova, Renata; Claessens, Frank; Clays, Els; Concin, Hans; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooper, Rachel; Coppinger, Tara C.; Costanzo, Simona; Cottel, Dominique; Cowell, Chris; Craig, Cora L.; Crujeiras, Ana B.; D'Arrigo, Graziella; d'Orsi, Eleonora; Dallongeville, Jean; Damasceno, Albertino; Damsgaard, Camilla T.; Danaei, Goodarz; Dankner, Rachel; Dauchet, Luc; De Backer, Guy; De Bacquer, Dirk; de Gaetano, Giovanni; De Henauw, Stefaan; De Smedt, Delphine; Deepa, Mohan; Deev, Alexander D.; Dehghan, Abbas; Delisle, Helene; Delpeuch, Francis; Dhana, Klodian; Di Castelnuovo, Augusto F.; Dias-da-Costa, Juvenal Soares; Diaz, Alejandro; Djalalinia, Shirin; Do, Ha T. P.; Dobson, Annette J.; Donfrancesco, Chiara; Doering, Angela; Doua, Kouamelan; Drygas, Wojciech; Egbagbe, Eruke E.; Eggertsen, Robert; Ekelund, Ulf; El Ati, Jalila; Elliott, Paul; Engle-Stone, Reina; Erasmus, Rajiv T.; Erem, Cihangir; Eriksen, Louise; Escobedo-de la Pena, Jorge; Evans, Alun; Faeh, David; Fall, Caroline H.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Felix-Redondo, Francisco J.; Ferguson, Trevor S.; Fernandez-Berges, Daniel; Ferrante, Daniel; Ferrari, Marika; Ferreccio, Catterina; Ferrieres, Jean; Finn, Joseph D.; Fischer, Krista; Monterubio Flores, Eric; Foeger, Bernhard; Foo, Leng Huat; Forslund, Ann-Sofie; Fortmann, Stephen P.; Fouad, Heba M.; Francis, Damian K.; Franco, Maria do Carmo; Franco, Oscar H.; Frontera, Guillermo; Fuchs, Flavio D.; Fuchs, Sandra C.; Fujita, Yuki; Furusawa, Takuro; Gaciong, Zbigniew; Gafencu, Mihai; Gareta, Dickman; Garnett, Sarah P.; Gaspoz, Jean-Michel; Gasull, Magda; Gates, Louise; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Ghasemian, Anoosheh; Giampaoli, Simona; Gianfagna, Francesco; Giovannelli, Jonathan; Giwercman, Aleksander; Goldsmith, Rebecca A.; Gonzalez Gross, Marcela; Gonzalez Rivas, Juan P.; Bonet Gorbea, Mariano; Gottrand, Frederic; -Iversen, Sidsel Graff; Grafnetter, Dusan; Grajda, Aneta; Grammatikopoulou, Maria G.; Gregor, Ronald D.; Grodzicki, Tomasz; Grontved, Anders; Gruden, Grabriella; Grujic, Vera; Gu, Dongfeng; Guan, Ong Peng; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Guerrero, Ramiro; Guessous, Idris; Guimaraes, Andre L.; Gulliford, Martin C.; Gunnlaugsdottir, Johanna; Gunter, Marc; Guo, Xiu H.; Guo, Yin; Gupta, Prakash C.; Gureje, Oye; Gurzkowska, Beata; Gutierrez, Laura; Gutzwiller, Felix; Halkjaer, Jytte; Hardy, Rebecca; Kumar, Rachakulla Hari; Hayes, Alison J.; He, Jiang; Hendriks, Marleen Elisabeth; Hernandez Cadena, Leticia; Heshmat, Ramin; Hihtaniemi, Ilpo Tapani; Ho, Sai Yin; Ho, Suzanne C.; Hobbs, Michael; Hofman, Albert; Hormiga, Claudia M.; Horta, Bernardo L.; Houti, Leila; Htay, Thein Thein; Htet, Aung Soe; Htike, Maung Maung Than; Hu, Yonghua; Hussieni, Abdullatif S.; Huu, Chinh Nguyen; Huybrechts, Inge; Hwalla, Nahla; Iacoviello, Licia; Iannone, Anna G.; Ibrahim, M. Mohsen; Ikeda, Nayu; Ikram, M. Arfan; Irazola, Vilma E.; Islam, Muhammad; Iwasaki, Masanori; Jackson, Rod T.; Jacobs, Jeremy M.; Jafar, Tazeen; Jamil, Kazi M.; Jamrozik, Konrad; Jasienska, Grazyna; Jiang, Chao Qiang; Joffres, Michel; Johansson, Mattias; Jonas, Jost B.; Jorgensen, Torben; Joshi, Pradeep; Juolevi, Anne; Jurak, Gregor; Juresa, Vesna; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kafatos, Anthony; Kalter-Leibovici, Ofra; Kapantais, Efthymios; Kasaeian, Amir; Katz, Joanne; Kaur, Prabhdeep; Kavousi, Maryam; Keil, Ulrich; Boker, Lital Keinan; Kelishadi, Roya; Kemper, Han H. C. G.; Kengne, Andre P.; Kersting, Mathilde; Key, Timothy; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Khaw, Kay-Tee H.; Khouw, Ilse M. S. L.; Kiechl, Stefan; Killewo, Japhet; Kim, Jeongseon; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Klimont, Jeannette; Kolle, Elin; Kolsteren, Patrick; Korrovits, Paul; Koskinen, Seppo; Kouda, Katsuyasu; Koziel, Slawomir; Kratzer, Wolfgang; Krokstad, Steinar; Kromhout, Daan; Kruger, Herculina S.; Kula, Krzysztof; Kulaga, Zbigniew; Kumar, R. Krishna; Kusuma, Yadlapalli S.; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Laamiri, Fatima Zahra; Laatikainen, Tiina; Lachat, Carl; Laid, Youcef; Lam, Tai Hing; Landrove, Orlando; Lanska, Vera; Lappas, Georg; Laugsand, Lars E.; Laxmaiah, Avula; Bao, Khanh Le Nguyen; Le, Tuyen D.; Leclercq, Catherine; Lee, Jeannette; Lee, Jeonghee; Lehtimaki, Terho; Lekhraj, Rampal; Leon-Munoz, Luz M.; Li, Yanping; Lim, Wei-Yen; Fernanda Lima-Costa, M.; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Lin, Xu; Linneberg, Allan; Lissner, Lauren; Litwin, Mieczyslaw; Liu, Jing; Lorbeer, Roberto; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Eugenio Lozano, Jose; Luksiene, Dalia; Lundqvist, Annamari; Lunet, Nuno; Lytsy, Per; Ma, Guansheng; Machi, Suka; Maggi, Stefania; Magliano, Dianna J.; Makdisse, Marcia; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malhotra, Rahul; Rao, Kodavanti Mallikharjuna; Manios, Yannis; Mann, Jim I.; Manzato, Enzo; Margozzini, Paula; Markey, Oonagh; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Marrugat, Jaume; Martin-Prevel, Yves; Martorell, Reynaldo; Masoodi, Shariq R.; Matsha, Tandi E.; Mazur, Artur; Mbanya, Jean Claude N.; McFarlane, Shelly R.; McGarvey, Stephen T.; McKee, Martin; McLachlan, Stela; McLean, Rachael M.; McNulty, Breige A.; Yusof, Safiah Md; Mediene-Benchekor, Sounnia; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Meisinger, Christa; Mendes, Larissa L.; Menezes, Ana Maria B.; Mensink, Gert B. M.; Meshram, Indrapal I.; Metspalu, Andres; Mi, Jie; Michaelsen, Kim F.; Mikkel, Kairit; Miller, Jody C.; Francisco Miquel, Juan; Jaime Miranda, J.; Misigoj-Durakovic, Marjeta; Mohamed, Mostafa K.; Mohammad, Kazem; Mohammadifard, Noushin; Mohan, Viswanathan; Yusoff, Muhammad Fadhli Mohd; Molbo, Drude; Moller, Niels C.; Molnar, Denes; Mondo, Charles K.; Monterrubio, Eric A.; Monyeki, Kotsedi Daniel K.; Moreira, Leila B.; Morejon, Alain; Moreno, Luis A.; Morgan, Karen; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Moschonis, George; Mossakowska, Malgorzata; Mostafa, Aya; Mota, Jorge; Motlagh, Mohammad Esmaeel; Motta, Jorge; Mu, Thet Thet; Muiesan, Maria Lorenza; Mueller-Nurasyid, Martina; Murphy, Neil; Mursu, Jaakko; Murtagh, Elaine M.; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Musil, Vera; Nagel, Gabriele; Nakamura, Harunobu; Namesna, Jana; Nang, Ei Ei K.; Nangia, Vinay B.; Nankap, Martin; Narake, Sameer; Maria Navarrete-Munoz, Eva; Nenko, Ilona; Neovius, Martin; Nervi, Flavio; Neuhauser, Hannelore K.; Nguyen, Nguyen D.; Nguyen, Quang Ngoc; Nieto-Martinez, Ramfis E.; Ning, Guang; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Nishtar, Sania; Noale, Marianna; Norat, Teresa; Noto, Davide; Al Nsour, Mohannad; O'Reilly, Dermot; Ochoa-Aviles, Angelica M.; Oh, Kyungwon; Olayan, Iman H.; Anselmo Olinto, Maria Teresa; Oltarzewski, Maciej; Omar, Mohd A.; Onat, Altan; Ordunez, Pedro; Ortiz, Ana P.; Osler, Merete; Osmond, Clive; Ostojic, Sergej M.; Otero, Johanna A.; Overvad, Kim; Paccaud, Fred Michel; Padez, Cristina; Pajak, Andrzej; Palli, Domenico; Palloni, Alberto; Palmieri, Luigi; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra; Panza, Francesco; Parnell, Winsome R.; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Pednekar, Mangesh S.; Peeters, Petra H.; Peixoto, Sergio Viana; Pereira, Alexandre C.; Perez, Cynthia M.; Peters, Annette; Peykari, Niloofar; Pham, Son Thai; Pigeot, Iris; Pikhart, Hynek; Pilav, Aida; Pilotto, Lorenza; Pistelli, Francesco; Pitakaka, Freda; Piwonska, Aleksandra; Piwonski, Jerzy; Plans-Rubio, Pedro; Poh, Bee Koon; Porta, Miquel; Portegies, Marileen L. P.; Poulimeneas, Dimitrios; Pradeepa, Rajendra; Prashant, Mathur; Price, Jacqueline F.; Puiu, Maria; Punab, Margus; Qasrawi, Radwan F.; Qorbani, Mostafa; Bao, Tran Quoc; Radic, Ivana; Radisauskas, Ricardas; Rahman, Mahmudur; Raitakari, Olli; Raj, Manu; Rao, Sudha Ramachandra; Ramachandran, Ambady; Ramke, Jacqueline; Ramos, Rafel; Rampal, Sanjay; Rasmussen, Finn; Redon, Josep; Reganit, Paul Ferdinand M.; Ribeiro, Robespierre; Riboli, Elio; Rigo, Fernando; de Wit, Tobias Floris Rinke; Ritti-Dias, Raphael M.; Rivera, Juan A.; Robinson, Sian M.; Robitaille, Cynthia; Rodriguez-Artalejo, Fernando; del Cristo Rodriguez-Perez, Maria; Rodriguez-Villamizar, Laura A.; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Rojroongwasinkul, Nipa; Romaguera, Dora; Ronkainen, Kimmo; Rosengren, Annika; Rouse, Ian; Rubinstein, Adolfo; Ruehli, Frank J.; Rui, Ornelas; Sandra Ruiz-Betancourt, Blanca; Russo Horimoto, Andrea R. V.; Rutkowski, Marcin; Sabanayagam, Charumathi; Sachdev, Harshpal S.; Saidi, Olfa; Salanave, Benoit; Salazar Martinez, Eduardo; Salomaa, Veikko; Salonen, Jukka T.; Salvetti, Massimo; Sanchez-Abanto, Jose; Sandjaja; Sans, Susana; Santos, Diana A.; Santos, Osvaldo; dos Santos, Renata Nunes; Santos, Rute; Sardinha, Luis B.; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal; Saum, Kai-Uwe; Savva, Savvas C.; Scazufca, Marcia; Rosario, Angelika Schaffrath; Schargrodsky, Herman; Schienkiewitz, Anja; Schmidt, Ida Maria; Schneider, Ione J.; Schultsz, Constance; Schutte, Aletta E.; Sein, Aye Aye; Senbanjo, Idowu O.; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Shalnova, Svetlana A.; Shaw, Jonathan E.; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Youchan; Shiri, Rahman; Siantar, Rosalynn; Sibai, Abla M.; Silva, Antonio M.; Santos Silva, Diego Augusto; Simon, Mary; Simons, Judith; Simons, Leon A.; Sjostrom, Michael; Slowikowska-Hilczer, Jolanta; Slusarczyk, Przemyslaw; Smeeth, Liam; Smith, Margaret C.; Snijder, Marieke B.; So, Hung-Kwan; Sobngwi, Eugene; Soderberg, Stefan; Soekatri, Moesijanti Y. E.; Solfrizzi, Vincenzo; Sonestedt, Emily; Sorensen, Thorkild I. A.; Soric, Maroje; Jerome, Charles Sossa; Soumare, Aicha; Staessen, Jan A.; Starc, Gregor; Stathopoulou, Maria G.; Staub, Kaspar; Stavreski, Bill; Steene-Johannessen, Jostein; Stehle, Peter; Stein, Aryeh D.; Stergiou, George S.; Stessman, Jochanan; Stieber, Jutta; Stoeckl, Doris; Stocks, Tanja; Stokwiszewski, Jakub; Stratton, Gareth; Strufaldi, Maria Wany; Sun, Chien-An; Sundstrom, Johan; Sung, Yn-Tz; Sunyer, Jordi; Suriyawongpaisal, Paibul; Swinburn, Boyd A.; Sy, Rody G.; Szponar, Lucjan; Tai, E. Shyong; Tammesoo, Mari-Liis; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Tang, Line; Tang, Xun; Tanser, Frank; Tao, Yong; Tarp, Jakob; Tarqui-Mamani, Carolina B.; Taylor, Anne; Tchibindat, Felicite; Thijs, Lutgarde; Thuesen, Betina H.; Tjonneland, Anne; Tolonen, Hanna K.; Tolstrup, Janne S.; Topbas, Murat; Topor-Madry, Roman; Torrent, Maties; Traissac, Pierre; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Trinh, Oanh T. H.; Trivedi, Atul; Tshepo, Lechaba; Tulloch-Reid, Marshall K.; Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Turley, Maria L.; Tynelius, Per; Tzotzas, Themistoklis; Tzourio, Christophe; Ueda, Peter; Ukoli, Flora A. M.; Ulmer, Hanno; Unal, Belgin; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Vale, Susana; Valvi, Damaskini; van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Van Herck, Koen; Minh, Hoang Van; van Valkengoed, Irene G. M.; Vanderschueren, Dirk; Vanuzzo, Diego; Vatten, Lars; Vega, Tomas; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Veronesi, Giovanni; Verschuren, W. M. Monique; Viegi, Giovanni; Viet, Lucie; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Vineis, Paolo; Vioque, Jesus; Virtanen, Jyrki K.; Visvikis-Siest, Sophie; Viswanathan, Bharathi; Vollenweider, Peter; Voutilainen, Sari; Vrijheid, Martine; Wade, Alisha N.; Wagner, Aline; Walton, Janette; Mohamud, Wan Nazaimoon Wan; Wang, Ming-Dong; Wang, Qian; Wang, Ya Xing; Wannamethee, S. Goya; Wareham, Nicholas; Weerasekera, Deepa; Whincup, Peter H.; Widhalm, Kurt; Widyahening, Indah S.; Wiecek, Andrzej; Wilks, Rainford J.; Willeit, Johann; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Wong, Jyh Eiin; Wong, Tien Yin; Woo, Jean; Woodward, Mark; Wu, Frederick C.; Wu, JianFeng; Wu, Shou Ling; Xu, Haiquan; Xu, Liang; Yamborisut, Uruwan; Yan, Weili; Yang, Xiaoguang; Yardim, Nazan; Ye, Xingwang; Yiallouros, Panayiotis K.; Yoshihara, Akihiro; You, Qi Sheng; Younger-Coleman, Novie O.; Yusoff, Ahmad F.; Zainuddin, Ahmad A.; Zambon, Sabina; Zdrojewski, Tomasz; Zeng, Yi; Zhao, Dong; Zhao, Wenhua; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Dan; Zimmermann, Esther; Zuñiga Cisneros, Julio; NCD Risk Factor Collaboration
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12866/5629
Date: 2016

Abstract:

Background: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18.5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18.5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), = 40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19.2 million adult participants (9.9 million men and 9.3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21.3-22.1) in 1975 to 24.2 kg/m(2) (24.0-24.4) in 2014 in men, and from 22.1 kg/m(2) (21.7-22.5) in 1975 to 24.4 kg/m(2) (24.2-24.6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21.4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29.2 kg/m(2) (28.6-29.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21.8 kg/m(2) (21.4-22.3) in south Asia to 32.2 kg/m(2) (31.5-32.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13.8% (10.5-17.4) to 8.8% (7.4-10.3) in men and from 14.6% (11.6-17.9) to 9.7% (8.3-11.1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23.4% (17.8-29.2) in men and 24.0% (18.9-29.3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% (2.4-4.1) in 1975 to 10.8% (9.7-12.0) in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% (5.1-7.8) to 14.9% (13.6-16.1) in women. 2.3% (2.0-2.7) of the world's men and 5.0% (4.4-5.6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI = 35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0.64% (0.46-0.86) in men and 1.6% (1.3-1.9) in women. Interpretation: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

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